The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts that U.S. farmers will plant more soybean acres this crop year with less earmarked for corn and wheat.
During the agency’s Agricultural Outlook Forum, USDA economist Jake Vuillemin said the three crops are expected to cover 225.5 million acres, a decrease of 2.3 million, but still above the five-year average. Wheat acres have the largest anticipated decline at 5% to 47 million acres, while corn acres are expected to decline 4% to 91 million acres.
On the other hand, soybean plantings are projected to increase by nearly 5% to 87.5 million acres on rising demand for biofuels and crush capacity expansion, according to the baseline projections.
“New-crop prices currently favor expanded soybean acres at the expense of corn acres,” Vuillemin said.
The baseline estimates peg corn production for 2024 at 15 billion bushels, 2% below last year’s record level.
“That is based on 83.1 million acres, or about 91% of planted acres being harvested and a weather-adjusted trend yield of 181 bushels per acre,” Vuiellmin said.
Corn supplies are projected at a record 17.2 billion bushels as sharply higher carry-in more than offsets lower production.
Soybean production is forecast at a record 4.5 billion bushels in 2024, 8% higher than the current crop year, driven by expanded area and a weather-adjusted trend yield of 52 bushels per acre.
“With current estimates for carry-in, total soybean supplies in 24-25 will be the second highest on record after the 18-19 crop year,” the economist said.
Wheat production is forecast to rise 5% despite smaller planted areas with the agency citing improved conditions in key wheat-growing regions.
“Total wheat supplies are forecast at nearly 2.7 billion bushels, 6% higher than 23-24,” he said. “With carry-in projected at 658 million bushels as 23-24 exports have so far failed to take off and will likely leave us with larger totals to end the current crop.”
Vuillemin said the outlooks assume normal weather for planting and crop development. The agency’s prospective plantings report is set to be released on March 28.
Rhiannon Branch is the commodities editor for FarmWeekNow.
